SEPTEMBER TO DECEMBER SEASON INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY OF ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE COUNTRY

On 21st August 2026

Rwanda Meteorology Agency (METEO RWANDA) has released a seasonal forecast for the September to December 2026 rainfall season, projecting a high probability of above-normal rainfall across the country compared to the Long-Term Mean (LTM) at least 30 years. Rainfall amounts during the season are expected to range between 300mm and 1000mm.

METEO RWANDA has indicated that expected seasonal rainfall is mainly influenced by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean (El Niño) and warming over western Indian Ocean (positive Indian Ocean Dipole), together with Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) drifting moisture from Northern Hemisphere towards the equatorial region, where Rwanda is located; however, it highlighted that rainfall in September is expected to be below normal, gradually increasing during the remaining months of the season. The analogue years for SOND 2026 rainfall seasonal forecast are 1997 and 2023.
The seasonal forecast indicates that areas expected highest range of rainfall are Nyamasheke District, western parts of Rutsiro and Karongi Districts, western and southern parts of Nyamagabe and Nyaruguru Districts, as well as the eastern parts of Rusizi District, with rainfall ranging between 800mm and 1000mm. Meanwhile, areas expected to have the lowest range of rainfall are small parts of the Southern and Eastern Provinces and  City of Kigali.

September to December Rainfall season is expected to start between 15th September and 13th October 2026, depending on the area, and is expected to end between 15th and 29th December 2026.

METEO RWANDA in collaboration with the Ministry of Environment, Ministry in Charge of Emergency Management, Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources, and Rwanda Agriculture and Animal Resources Development Board (RAB), advised public institutions, NGOs, Private sector and the general public to take advantage of the seasonal forecast and make informed decisions on Strong wind and lightning strikes especially at the beginning of the season; Hailstorms and Rainfall runoffs and soil erosion. It is recommended to use other complementary weather forecasts, as well as weather warnings, to support decision-making and enable early action. Detailed Season Forecast Click Here

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